* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 57 60 61 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 57 60 61 63 65 67 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 9 9 8 6 12 8 9 12 7 8 5 SHEAR DIR 250 254 247 234 221 178 182 174 172 178 184 176 236 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 154 155 157 154 151 148 146 148 152 155 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 13 500-300 MB RH 36 35 40 40 38 40 34 32 28 28 31 40 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 9 9 11 6 1 0 -2 0 0 2 1 1 850 MB VORT 8 0 12 0 -24 -32 -40 -55 -70 -88 -53 -70 -58 LAND (KM) 867 805 762 741 743 786 810 869 918 809 539 361 234 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.9 26.8 27.5 28.0 29.0 30.6 31.8 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.4 61.6 62.8 63.9 66.2 68.1 69.2 69.9 71.3 73.6 75.0 75.7 HEAT CONTENT 34 43 40 33 38 35 35 22 21 17 19 36 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. 35. 37. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)