* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 66 64 60 56 52 50 47 44 41 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 66 64 60 56 52 50 47 44 41 SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 4 2 4 4 7 5 8 1 7 13 18 SHEAR DIR 45 11 61 45 79 96 87 45 96 19 135 177 168 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 129 125 118 115 113 112 112 112 112 112 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 48 50 50 50 46 46 38 36 26 26 29 25 21 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 -1 0 850 MB VORT 41 45 35 38 38 40 53 46 33 43 42 26 9 LAND (KM) 1229 1253 1283 1309 1339 1407 1463 1519 1596 1683 1781 1882 2006 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.4 121.1 121.8 122.5 123.7 124.8 125.9 127.0 128.1 129.2 130.4 131.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.04 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 74.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 3.90 Prob of RI= 25.7% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)