* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/11/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 35 40 45 48 49 51 52 52 50 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 35 40 45 48 49 51 52 52 50 SHEAR (KTS) 18 19 19 20 22 19 16 13 12 6 3 7 12 SHEAR DIR 30 28 25 32 37 35 35 14 33 4 118 159 176 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.3 25.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 151 151 152 152 151 148 140 124 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 500-300 MB RH 63 63 63 61 61 68 60 63 57 56 55 50 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -9 -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -33 -33 -39 -27 -24 -17 -5 0 3 13 20 46 42 LAND (KM) 868 904 934 979 1032 1132 1140 1160 1176 1220 1235 1300 1401 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.7 113.4 114.8 116.1 117.2 118.6 120.2 122.2 124.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32. 32. 30. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/11/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 30.3% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)