* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/11/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 54 59 63 64 65 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 54 59 63 64 65 64 65 66 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 7 6 5 5 4 6 11 14 9 9 5 SHEAR DIR 246 254 247 216 205 179 172 136 161 167 184 205 302 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 155 155 152 146 145 143 143 146 152 155 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 500-300 MB RH 38 40 39 37 36 38 34 33 27 27 26 32 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 7 7 5 6 2 0 -2 0 0 1 1 2 850 MB VORT -12 -8 -18 -43 -64 -35 -63 -60 -101 -85 -92 -66 -82 LAND (KM) 830 807 804 819 852 874 923 957 857 692 466 310 220 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.6 26.1 27.0 27.9 28.5 29.0 30.0 31.5 32.5 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.6 62.8 63.9 64.9 66.7 68.4 69.6 70.5 71.8 73.4 74.6 75.5 HEAT CONTENT 43 36 32 35 30 29 17 13 12 17 15 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31. 32. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 30. 29. 30. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/11/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)