* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/11/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 66 63 59 54 51 49 47 43 40 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 66 63 59 54 51 49 47 43 40 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 2 0 5 5 6 2 2 11 12 17 SHEAR DIR 286 326 328 35 309 11 64 63 108 198 171 172 177 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.6 24.9 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 130 125 122 115 111 111 112 111 110 111 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 54 53 51 52 52 50 46 44 33 29 30 27 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 45 30 30 31 33 37 57 40 36 15 25 5 7 LAND (KM) 1252 1260 1274 1295 1319 1395 1445 1518 1596 1684 1777 1912 2061 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.7 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.9 121.5 122.1 122.6 123.8 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.2 129.4 130.9 132.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -18. -21. -24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -22. -25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/11/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 3.65 Prob of RI= 21.1% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)