* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/11/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 60 67 70 73 72 71 70 71 71 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 60 67 70 73 72 71 70 71 71 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 8 7 7 5 8 11 13 8 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 243 231 199 202 186 165 138 155 178 185 196 283 293 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 155 154 148 143 142 143 145 149 152 148 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 8 500-300 MB RH 39 40 39 36 38 35 32 28 26 27 32 38 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 8 7 7 3 0 -1 -2 0 2 2 0 -11 850 MB VORT -16 -24 -41 -62 -45 -40 -60 -69 -80 -68 -91 -29 -38 LAND (KM) 803 802 821 865 874 914 961 811 668 522 365 198 46 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.2 32.4 33.7 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.1 64.2 65.2 66.2 67.8 69.4 70.7 71.9 72.9 73.8 74.8 75.8 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 36 28 27 18 12 12 18 15 33 32 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 23. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. 28. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 25. 28. 27. 26. 25. 26. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/11/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 16.7% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)