* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/11/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 65 63 59 55 51 47 44 41 38 34 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 65 63 59 55 51 47 44 41 38 34 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 3 3 5 3 1 2 8 4 13 17 18 SHEAR DIR 296 326 324 275 279 10 286 210 259 237 199 195 200 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 127 123 119 115 114 113 111 108 108 107 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 56 51 53 55 56 52 55 50 43 39 37 38 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 1 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 3 850 MB VORT 27 24 23 25 22 23 28 20 -6 -6 8 43 54 LAND (KM) 1261 1278 1298 1321 1346 1415 1455 1504 1573 1655 1779 1876 1981 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.9 19.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.0 124.1 124.8 125.7 126.9 128.1 129.5 130.7 131.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 575 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. -31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/11/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 62.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.25 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 3.54 Prob of RI= 19.0% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)