* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SEVEN 08/11/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 47 53 58 60 57 50 42 32 20 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 43 47 53 58 60 57 50 42 32 20 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 15 14 12 9 12 7 16 16 21 27 34 SHEAR DIR 2 358 8 10 358 329 329 290 268 265 246 234 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.5 25.5 24.2 22.5 21.6 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 151 148 140 131 121 107 90 80 74 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 2 2 2 1 500-300 MB RH 62 59 59 63 68 62 62 54 44 33 27 19 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -2 -6 -6 -9 -5 2 0 -3 -6 -1 4 3 850 MB VORT -43 -51 -55 -46 -46 -19 -7 -8 -25 -43 -42 -24 -15 LAND (KM) 851 884 925 979 982 950 936 908 883 843 746 701 693 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 18.5 19.6 21.1 23.0 24.5 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.6 112.6 113.5 115.5 116.8 117.9 118.8 119.5 120.2 121.0 121.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 647 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 26. 28. 26. 19. 11. 1. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 28. 30. 27. 20. 12. 2. -10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SEVEN 8/11/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 3.83 Prob of RI= 24.4% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)