* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 57 62 65 66 67 67 67 68 67 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 57 62 65 66 67 67 67 68 67 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 6 4 3 4 12 13 12 9 7 11 16 SHEAR DIR 256 220 220 205 171 140 141 165 166 189 205 298 304 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 148 145 143 143 145 149 152 152 143 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 8 8 500-300 MB RH 36 37 33 34 36 32 34 28 30 33 34 37 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 7 5 3 3 0 -3 -1 -2 0 4 -3 -10 850 MB VORT -20 -44 -63 -50 -40 -68 -62 -91 -73 -94 -61 -68 -56 LAND (KM) 805 838 879 891 916 951 878 715 551 391 257 141 99 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.9 29.8 30.8 31.9 32.9 34.2 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.4 65.5 66.4 67.3 68.8 70.3 71.7 73.0 74.1 74.9 75.1 74.8 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 21 26 19 15 13 16 16 23 33 27 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 726 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 24. 24. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.49 Prob of RI= 19.2% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)