* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 68 66 64 58 53 49 46 43 40 37 36 V (KT) LAND 70 70 68 66 64 58 53 49 46 43 40 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 4 2 3 4 4 3 6 10 12 17 13 SHEAR DIR 332 341 340 283 302 301 346 192 248 203 217 206 212 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 123 120 117 114 112 112 111 110 110 110 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 52 54 54 58 55 52 49 42 37 41 45 46 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 1 850 MB VORT 24 27 29 29 34 44 53 64 52 40 18 39 51 LAND (KM) 1289 1317 1348 1382 1418 1469 1518 1596 1676 1794 1952 2076 2174 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.1 122.7 123.3 123.9 125.0 126.0 127.0 128.1 129.6 131.5 132.9 134.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. -33. -34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 3.53 Prob of RI= 18.8% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)