* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 55 59 63 66 65 58 50 41 33 26 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 55 59 63 66 65 58 50 41 33 26 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 15 14 12 14 12 3 14 17 17 22 16 SHEAR DIR 6 15 17 5 358 356 15 301 280 260 235 230 256 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.2 24.8 23.5 22.5 22.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 148 140 128 114 100 90 86 83 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 65 61 65 69 68 69 64 50 35 25 20 20 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 -9 -7 -6 -7 0 4 0 -9 -3 0 0 -1 850 MB VORT -60 -71 -73 -81 -75 -61 -34 -24 -29 -8 -12 -2 -23 LAND (KM) 862 909 965 970 977 1020 1002 925 892 906 933 978 1017 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.3 21.5 22.4 22.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.5 112.4 113.5 114.5 116.3 117.5 118.4 119.5 120.7 122.1 123.1 123.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 20. 23. 23. 17. 10. 2. -7. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 25. 18. 10. 1. -7. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 34.8% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)