* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/12/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 60 63 64 64 65 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 60 63 64 64 65 67 69 70 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 3 5 3 7 12 12 10 11 7 4 11 SHEAR DIR 211 227 193 190 148 136 158 164 185 206 257 265 281 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 148 145 143 142 142 143 146 149 149 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 10 10 500-300 MB RH 38 32 36 37 36 32 32 29 29 32 35 43 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 6 5 8 1 -2 -4 -1 0 0 3 2 -4 850 MB VORT -46 -67 -48 -32 -47 -59 -70 -78 -68 -85 -68 -51 -41 LAND (KM) 864 908 916 934 962 938 790 651 522 404 318 216 135 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.5 30.4 31.5 32.6 33.4 34.4 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 65.3 66.4 67.3 68.1 69.5 70.9 71.9 72.5 73.0 73.4 73.9 74.4 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 23 17 14 11 13 17 14 29 41 31 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 23. 25. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. 22. 24. 25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/12/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.4% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)