* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/12/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 69 66 61 56 52 48 44 41 38 36 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 69 66 61 56 52 48 44 41 38 36 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 4 2 2 3 1 2 6 9 10 13 20 SHEAR DIR 348 3 6 52 136 282 19 214 182 213 210 204 181 SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 113 112 112 112 111 111 112 111 108 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 51 49 55 53 49 50 45 42 36 35 34 37 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 3 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 850 MB VORT 20 17 16 19 9 17 27 31 15 7 16 28 32 LAND (KM) 1300 1336 1374 1409 1433 1511 1611 1708 1807 1918 2032 2187 1966 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.8 123.4 124.0 124.6 125.9 127.2 128.4 129.6 130.9 132.2 134.0 136.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 613 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. -23. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/12/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 25.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.10 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.68 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 3.80 Prob of RI= 23.8% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)