* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/12/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 60 64 67 67 66 65 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 60 64 67 67 66 65 64 62 60 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 13 13 9 10 8 7 3 1 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 27 26 30 38 38 358 8 6 83 221 175 358 64 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 150 148 147 148 146 140 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 63 67 68 65 58 65 59 58 50 49 46 51 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -5 -4 0 -4 -11 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -63 -68 -78 -79 -81 -61 -40 -10 5 33 34 58 60 LAND (KM) 946 974 1000 989 983 1007 1070 1159 1253 1315 1371 1497 1705 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.8 15.8 15.5 15.5 15.8 15.8 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.0 115.4 116.9 118.1 119.1 120.1 121.3 123.0 125.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/12/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.43 Prob of RI= 36.1% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)