* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/12/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 62 65 66 66 65 64 63 64 64 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 62 65 66 66 65 64 63 64 64 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 5 2 3 11 12 15 9 10 1 8 14 SHEAR DIR 218 220 225 245 62 143 156 168 163 197 310 271 298 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 145 142 139 138 138 138 139 143 148 148 142 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 500-300 MB RH 33 33 36 36 36 34 29 28 27 29 33 43 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 5 13 4 2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 14 -17 850 MB VORT -66 -52 -31 -41 -58 -59 -95 -81 -104 -100 -90 -54 -43 LAND (KM) 974 989 1009 1032 1020 874 722 598 525 433 331 248 201 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.7 31.6 32.3 33.1 33.9 34.9 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.8 66.7 67.4 68.0 69.3 70.5 71.3 71.6 72.1 72.8 73.3 73.6 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 11 10 14 10 8 7 12 30 39 24 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 645 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 14. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/12/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.95 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 20.9% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)