* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/12/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 65 61 53 47 42 38 35 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 65 61 53 47 42 38 35 33 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 3 0 3 5 4 5 7 9 12 10 15 SHEAR DIR 322 339 5 348 249 301 236 221 196 195 192 188 185 SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 114 111 107 105 107 108 110 113 113 111 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 52 54 50 46 42 43 41 37 36 36 39 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 4 4 850 MB VORT 29 16 27 31 40 39 58 38 43 33 48 29 37 LAND (KM) 1313 1347 1378 1397 1419 1505 1640 1770 1914 2082 2118 1908 1695 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.2 123.8 124.5 125.2 126.6 128.0 129.4 131.0 132.7 134.7 136.7 138.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -22. -25. -25. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -23. -28. -32. -34. -37. -37. -38. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/12/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 24.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.06 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 3.64 Prob of RI= 21.0% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)