* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/12/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 55 56 58 59 58 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 55 56 58 59 58 57 56 53 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 15 12 11 15 13 9 7 11 11 12 15 SHEAR DIR 26 30 38 34 23 32 46 72 80 105 122 92 108 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 152 152 152 152 151 148 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 67 66 63 59 62 63 62 57 55 56 58 60 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -4 0 -1 -5 -4 -1 0 3 0 0 2 0 850 MB VORT -74 -85 -83 -79 -75 -64 -27 -18 2 8 37 40 56 LAND (KM) 1011 1059 1080 1094 1111 1127 1169 1211 1274 1360 1471 1562 1661 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.2 118.0 119.2 121.0 122.7 124.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 568 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/12/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 3.69 Prob of RI= 21.9% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)