* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NONAME 08/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 55 61 67 70 74 77 81 82 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 55 61 67 70 74 77 81 82 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 2 6 6 10 8 9 4 6 3 10 5 SHEAR DIR 326 346 319 284 280 248 263 244 252 217 152 187 188 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.4 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 16 17 16 16 16 15 16 14 15 13 14 12 500-300 MB RH 42 47 46 43 46 49 52 53 54 51 54 50 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT -64 -63 -72 -86 -95 -94 -102 -90 -94 -63 -59 -39 -44 LAND (KM) 230 198 146 108 92 66 119 187 268 378 383 311 300 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.6 24.4 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.9 76.8 77.7 78.6 80.4 82.0 83.4 84.7 86.1 87.6 89.2 90.9 HEAT CONTENT 70 75 88 99 108 114 67 53 31 58 57 122 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 690 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -23. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. 34. 38. 41. 44. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 32. 35. 39. 42. 46. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 8/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.91 Scaled RI index= 4.96 Prob of RI= 35.4% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)