* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 56 61 64 67 71 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 56 61 64 67 71 74 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 5 2 1 6 8 12 6 9 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 59 65 90 121 296 155 166 176 188 175 292 152 70 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 149 149 149 148 149 149 149 151 152 154 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 50 51 48 53 53 49 48 42 39 46 49 54 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 2 1 1 0 4 3 1 0 0 -4 0 850 MB VORT 32 26 18 17 15 -11 -28 -33 -34 -38 -28 -20 -13 LAND (KM) 1297 1239 1189 1157 1131 1117 1102 1082 1060 1019 965 912 837 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.5 43.4 44.2 44.9 45.9 46.9 47.7 48.5 49.6 50.8 52.1 53.8 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 33 38 40 43 45 54 65 69 70 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 431 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 31. 36. 40. 43. 47. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 31. 36. 39. 42. 46. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.35 Prob of RI= 16.0% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)