* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 73 70 66 57 49 43 38 36 34 32 32 V (KT) LAND 75 75 73 70 66 57 49 43 38 36 34 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 2 6 3 3 6 7 9 8 9 11 12 SHEAR DIR 289 315 167 198 231 216 205 219 211 183 192 181 196 SST (C) 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 110 107 106 105 107 107 110 110 111 108 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 49 48 41 44 45 37 33 30 33 37 40 43 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 -1 0 2 0 1 0 4 6 6 7 6 850 MB VORT 34 42 47 71 68 62 57 41 38 47 40 49 63 LAND (KM) 1373 1399 1428 1461 1496 1603 1740 1867 2023 2164 1949 1739 1536 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.3 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.3 125.0 125.7 126.4 127.8 129.2 130.6 132.3 134.2 136.3 138.3 140.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. -30. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -8. -16. -23. -29. -33. -36. -38. -40. -41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -5. -9. -18. -26. -32. -37. -39. -41. -42. -43. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 24.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.85 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 3.79 Prob of RI= 23.6% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)