* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 49 51 52 52 52 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 49 51 52 52 52 52 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 17 16 18 18 10 10 14 14 11 14 10 SHEAR DIR 20 23 11 2 10 31 53 81 125 129 118 110 120 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 152 152 151 151 151 150 146 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.6 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 67 62 58 61 64 57 58 53 56 54 60 53 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -4 -7 -3 -3 0 4 3 -1 0 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT -73 -74 -74 -81 -80 -53 -32 -28 -9 0 35 41 65 LAND (KM) 1038 1054 1073 1081 1091 1132 1173 1219 1261 1348 1471 1575 1672 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.7 15.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.2 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.4 119.6 121.4 123.2 124.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 582 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.05 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 106.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.50 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.27 Prob of RI= 14.2% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)