* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 64 65 67 67 67 67 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 64 65 67 67 67 67 65 63 61 SHEAR (KTS) 0 3 5 9 13 9 9 5 3 9 11 14 23 SHEAR DIR 231 107 86 97 115 133 150 129 195 316 336 308 292 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 138 138 135 138 142 142 142 143 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 10 9 5 4 500-300 MB RH 40 39 37 35 34 31 33 32 34 34 37 43 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 3 1 1 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 -10 -5 -10 850 MB VORT -43 -51 -64 -70 -68 -98 -89 -117 -77 -72 -66 -69 -51 LAND (KM) 1007 1031 962 900 837 698 561 456 406 397 376 388 399 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.7 30.1 31.2 32.1 33.1 34.1 34.6 34.7 35.5 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.9 68.7 69.1 69.5 70.3 71.3 71.8 71.8 71.7 71.9 71.6 71.0 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 11 9 8 9 25 27 23 24 14 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)