* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 48 52 56 59 61 65 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 48 52 56 59 61 65 67 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 6 5 6 9 9 11 6 8 3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 79 117 139 143 137 178 197 224 222 257 283 254 293 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 149 149 149 149 151 152 155 155 159 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 46 46 51 51 47 46 40 41 36 44 49 53 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 0 0 0 0 4 5 2 1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 21 18 17 17 1 -11 -34 -30 -31 -34 -27 -33 -13 LAND (KM) 1290 1224 1163 1140 1117 1100 1065 993 942 872 811 721 525 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.0 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.2 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.4 44.3 44.9 45.5 46.4 47.2 48.1 49.1 50.4 51.9 53.7 56.2 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 33 37 38 42 44 54 62 62 67 76 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 501 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 26. 31. 35. 37. 41. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. 40. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.62 Prob of RI= 22.4% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)