* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 66 61 52 46 42 39 37 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 66 61 52 46 42 39 37 36 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 2 3 5 8 7 8 9 15 14 17 13 SHEAR DIR 293 282 265 237 262 206 220 211 218 192 211 213 249 SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 108 108 107 107 111 113 113 112 108 110 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 47 38 44 46 41 38 34 31 30 32 33 35 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 0 2 10 0 4 0 850 MB VORT 41 40 58 57 57 69 64 64 50 61 61 79 87 LAND (KM) 1403 1436 1472 1515 1560 1690 1886 2044 2193 2003 1750 1576 1458 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.1 18.7 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.3 18.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.3 125.0 125.7 126.4 127.1 128.6 130.6 132.2 133.8 135.8 138.2 139.9 141.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. -29. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -29. -33. -36. -38. -39. -41. -43. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 24.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 3.35 Prob of RI= 15.6% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)