* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 36 36 39 42 46 48 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 36 36 39 42 46 48 49 48 47 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 13 15 17 16 12 11 15 14 9 14 13 SHEAR DIR 44 30 11 8 16 44 53 91 121 151 136 147 153 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 150 147 143 137 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 64 59 61 67 63 57 57 59 58 56 56 53 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -4 -8 -3 0 3 5 -1 1 0 -2 1 850 MB VORT -71 -81 -89 -88 -68 -33 -12 -3 9 17 25 52 18 LAND (KM) 1010 1023 1041 1062 1085 1145 1212 1283 1363 1438 1525 1598 1671 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.0 114.6 115.1 115.6 116.6 117.6 118.6 119.7 120.9 122.3 123.8 125.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 606 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -1. 2. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.27 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.79 Prob of RI= 5.3% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)