* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 64 65 65 66 65 65 64 62 60 57 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 64 65 65 66 65 65 64 62 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 1 6 9 11 10 6 1 1 8 11 19 19 30 SHEAR DIR 145 74 106 115 127 157 106 344 308 298 282 284 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 135 135 135 137 141 143 146 146 142 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 6 6 5 4 500-300 MB RH 40 36 35 33 30 29 27 33 35 43 48 48 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 3 -1 0 2 0 850 MB VORT -44 -70 -78 -83 -98 -123 -109 -104 -49 -44 -30 -20 15 LAND (KM) 1033 962 867 778 691 573 532 524 487 483 486 534 556 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.7 31.5 33.2 34.5 35.5 36.2 36.7 37.2 38.2 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 68.6 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.3 70.2 70.1 70.3 70.0 69.2 66.1 61.3 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 10 9 8 6 14 25 20 18 21 19 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.46 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 20.9% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)