* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 53 56 57 58 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 53 56 57 58 59 61 63 SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 5 5 7 6 13 13 13 8 8 4 5 SHEAR DIR 92 121 110 140 171 173 178 215 199 217 179 182 211 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 145 145 145 145 145 145 146 149 152 154 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 46 46 48 46 45 45 44 44 44 49 52 52 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 31 29 29 13 9 -15 -27 -25 -22 -15 -17 -12 -22 LAND (KM) 1282 1251 1226 1228 1229 1252 1262 1268 1271 1249 1211 1040 916 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.7 44.4 44.9 45.4 46.1 46.7 47.5 48.5 49.9 51.5 53.6 55.9 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 29 31 32 35 37 43 52 66 79 77 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 38. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 34. 36. 38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.79 Prob of RI= 29.0% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)