* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 67 63 58 51 46 43 41 39 38 38 40 V (KT) LAND 75 72 67 63 58 51 46 43 41 39 38 38 40 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 4 4 6 6 7 9 12 14 10 6 4 SHEAR DIR 285 283 307 233 209 210 224 225 202 215 209 233 221 SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 107 107 107 111 115 115 114 113 113 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 39 44 43 42 43 35 25 25 29 29 29 36 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 2 6 0 5 0 0 850 MB VORT 40 55 52 56 66 64 58 55 49 55 60 83 91 LAND (KM) 1443 1491 1543 1603 1665 1835 2031 2193 2060 1885 1696 1524 1350 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 18.7 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.0 126.8 127.6 128.3 130.0 131.9 133.6 135.3 137.0 138.9 140.6 142.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. -28. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -24. -28. -30. -33. -34. -34. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -12. -17. -24. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. -37. -35. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 24.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 33.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 12.7% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)