* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 35 39 43 47 49 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 35 39 43 47 49 51 51 49 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 13 14 16 10 8 8 13 12 11 13 15 SHEAR DIR 41 8 9 19 37 53 95 102 130 141 122 130 137 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 151 152 151 150 147 143 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 60 57 62 60 58 60 58 64 60 67 60 64 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -6 -6 -6 -2 0 1 1 -2 4 3 0 0 850 MB VORT -81 -89 -92 -85 -70 -27 -15 10 15 24 29 36 26 LAND (KM) 1003 1021 1041 1066 1092 1160 1215 1279 1383 1491 1638 1730 1774 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.7 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.0 114.4 114.9 115.4 116.7 117.4 118.2 119.6 121.3 123.4 124.9 125.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.05 Scaled RI index= 2.84 Prob of RI= 6.3% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)