* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 63 63 62 59 56 51 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 63 63 62 59 56 51 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 17 12 12 6 4 3 20 20 26 29 33 SHEAR DIR 28 64 97 112 118 132 34 223 291 271 282 271 266 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 134 134 135 141 146 146 143 135 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 11 6 6 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 38 34 33 30 27 28 30 35 34 41 40 38 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -1 2 0 1 0 0 0 -9 0 6 -11 24 850 MB VORT -64 -81 -78 -94 -111 -97 -107 -22 -17 -14 -10 -16 -5 LAND (KM) 967 876 785 703 626 558 539 512 482 469 514 538 663 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.7 32.5 34.0 35.6 36.6 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.1 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.8 69.4 69.8 70.1 70.1 69.9 69.7 69.3 68.0 65.9 62.8 59.2 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 8 7 9 27 22 20 26 8 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)