* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 51 53 56 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 51 53 56 57 59 59 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 6 7 7 7 11 15 15 11 12 7 7 SHEAR DIR 124 179 164 172 202 176 185 197 213 211 221 241 268 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 142 142 141 141 141 142 145 148 149 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 46 46 45 44 45 44 44 44 48 51 48 50 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 3 1 2 0 3 850 MB VORT 20 20 10 10 1 -19 -14 -19 -4 -4 -5 -6 -35 LAND (KM) 1317 1314 1314 1326 1337 1374 1411 1462 1502 1515 1472 1379 1256 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 43.8 44.4 44.8 45.2 45.9 46.6 47.4 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 54.5 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 29 28 27 32 35 36 38 42 38 38 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 544 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 35. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.81 Scaled RI index= 4.36 Prob of RI= 16.1% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)