* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 57 53 46 42 40 38 38 38 39 39 V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 57 53 46 42 40 38 38 38 39 39 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 4 3 7 8 11 12 15 12 10 9 12 SHEAR DIR 290 319 313 217 213 220 216 220 213 231 211 207 218 SST (C) 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 107 107 107 112 117 118 117 116 116 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 40 37 36 34 30 24 23 24 27 30 33 37 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 1 -1 3 1 1 850 MB VORT 47 42 42 50 64 50 62 47 48 26 38 47 46 LAND (KM) 1480 1543 1608 1681 1755 1925 2102 2192 2032 1851 1664 1457 1243 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.5 17.9 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.9 127.7 128.5 129.3 130.9 132.5 134.1 135.7 137.5 139.4 141.4 143.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -28. -30. -32. -32. -32. -31. -31. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 24.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 37.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 2.61 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)