* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 33 37 41 46 50 54 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 33 37 41 46 50 54 56 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 13 11 8 6 9 9 6 7 10 10 6 SHEAR DIR 12 14 33 52 59 51 93 128 145 104 123 93 99 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 151 152 152 151 150 146 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 62 64 61 58 60 57 60 59 60 60 59 59 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -5 -2 0 2 2 2 2 1 0 5 3 1 850 MB VORT -80 -86 -80 -75 -54 -28 -2 21 42 49 64 82 87 LAND (KM) 973 992 1011 1032 1053 1123 1211 1293 1393 1502 1661 1792 1909 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.3 114.6 114.9 115.2 116.1 117.2 118.4 119.9 121.6 123.6 125.3 126.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 647 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 20. 19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 2.94 Prob of RI= 8.2% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)