* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 57 57 59 59 59 58 56 54 50 V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 57 57 59 59 59 58 56 54 50 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 12 10 8 2 2 17 24 28 29 32 35 SHEAR DIR 60 95 126 122 126 299 335 278 277 278 268 245 233 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.4 28.3 28.0 26.9 26.1 24.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 133 134 138 148 146 142 128 120 108 89 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -55.1 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 13 10 7 5 4 3 3 2 500-300 MB RH 36 35 32 30 30 31 36 40 45 39 43 45 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 5 11 0 19 10 -15 850 MB VORT -74 -80 -96 -114 -122 -95 -37 -32 -25 -17 8 57 75 LAND (KM) 865 782 702 646 598 573 547 507 564 540 540 599 535 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.1 31.9 32.7 33.4 35.1 36.8 37.8 38.2 38.9 40.2 41.1 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.9 69.3 69.6 69.8 69.9 69.6 68.7 67.3 65.6 63.4 60.5 56.4 51.6 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 5 5 21 30 28 10 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 73.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.43 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 3.69 Prob of RI= 8.0% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)