* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 44 48 50 53 55 57 60 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 44 48 50 53 55 57 60 62 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 12 14 11 13 10 15 9 12 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 190 166 184 206 212 179 218 206 230 214 272 271 348 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 142 142 142 142 145 148 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 46 44 44 45 44 43 46 45 50 54 53 54 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 5 3 1 2 850 MB VORT 18 3 3 -1 -7 -20 -18 -20 -4 -5 1 -15 -39 LAND (KM) 1318 1322 1324 1331 1341 1381 1409 1444 1433 1381 1300 1163 1073 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.8 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 44.8 45.4 45.9 46.3 47.0 47.9 48.9 50.3 51.7 53.5 55.2 56.8 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 28 31 34 38 42 46 50 49 48 47 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. 31. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. 30. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)