* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 57 53 47 44 42 41 41 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 57 53 47 44 42 41 41 41 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 4 9 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 5 SHEAR DIR 296 298 254 221 218 217 231 201 193 191 187 198 208 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.9 25.3 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 107 108 110 115 119 120 118 117 116 117 119 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 40 38 36 33 31 22 25 30 33 38 43 46 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 41 43 57 64 54 41 41 30 38 33 46 57 68 LAND (KM) 1527 1584 1641 1713 1786 1979 2156 2147 1968 1775 1571 1396 1229 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.2 17.6 17.1 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.4 128.1 128.8 129.5 131.3 132.9 134.6 136.4 138.3 140.3 142.0 143.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. -30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -13. -17. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. -29. -29. -30. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 24.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 37.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 2.48 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)