* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 42 47 51 55 58 59 57 55 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 42 47 51 55 58 59 57 55 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 6 5 4 5 4 11 8 13 11 11 5 SHEAR DIR 355 7 21 37 4 90 80 113 96 92 103 108 114 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 151 152 152 151 149 144 141 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 68 63 60 58 56 53 61 59 62 57 58 57 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) -9 -4 -2 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -3 850 MB VORT -90 -83 -76 -54 -35 -16 26 47 61 49 67 62 76 LAND (KM) 952 970 990 1024 1059 1151 1263 1354 1439 1528 1652 1731 1769 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.5 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.7 115.1 115.5 115.8 116.4 117.6 119.0 120.5 122.1 123.8 125.0 125.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 21. 21. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 22. 20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.10 Scaled RI index= 3.29 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)