* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 52 53 55 54 54 54 51 49 43 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 52 53 55 54 54 54 51 49 43 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 12 7 4 4 17 30 32 34 40 49 50 SHEAR DIR 81 104 108 122 97 328 267 278 268 264 243 228 214 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 28.2 27.9 26.7 26.2 25.7 21.4 16.5 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 133 134 145 141 126 121 116 89 76 75 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 13 13 11 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 36 32 30 30 29 32 44 37 43 46 50 46 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -11 -17 0 10 20 15 850 MB VORT -70 -88 -103 -110 -115 -71 -16 -27 -6 8 45 90 64 LAND (KM) 792 718 648 619 603 591 465 490 504 515 432 272 499 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.6 32.4 33.3 34.2 36.3 38.2 39.1 39.6 40.7 42.8 44.3 45.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 69.7 69.9 69.7 69.5 68.8 67.4 65.1 62.4 59.6 56.8 52.4 46.9 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 4 11 29 22 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 79.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 3.70 Prob of RI= 8.1% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)