* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 49 52 54 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 49 52 54 56 58 61 SHEAR (KTS) 8 15 15 12 11 14 11 13 8 9 6 8 3 SHEAR DIR 169 182 202 206 182 202 184 206 194 198 233 248 230 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 143 143 143 146 148 151 152 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 42 43 43 42 40 40 43 44 48 49 49 48 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 2 0 2 -1 2 0 2 1 3 1 850 MB VORT 13 9 2 0 -14 -15 -19 -13 -1 -6 -10 -25 -26 LAND (KM) 1326 1322 1319 1323 1330 1342 1351 1346 1298 1190 1119 951 799 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.5 47.4 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 54.8 56.8 58.7 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 29 32 35 43 46 60 67 85 64 62 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 4.30 Prob of RI= 15.4% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)