* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 50 45 42 40 39 40 41 41 42 V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 50 45 42 40 39 40 41 41 42 SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 12 10 9 9 3 SHEAR DIR 304 291 243 240 254 234 246 220 228 212 236 226 203 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 108 110 112 116 118 117 117 117 119 125 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 38 36 33 28 26 21 19 22 23 26 32 33 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -4 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 37 48 52 48 45 54 29 37 20 33 29 26 24 LAND (KM) 1585 1653 1722 1806 1891 2070 2213 2032 1853 1690 1541 1359 1154 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.1 16.7 16.2 15.7 15.2 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.2 128.9 129.7 130.5 132.2 133.9 135.7 137.5 139.2 140.8 142.8 145.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 668 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. -27. -26. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -25. -24. -24. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 24.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.06 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 2.43 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)