* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 42 47 51 55 57 59 58 57 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 42 47 51 55 57 59 58 57 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 5 3 4 4 4 8 5 10 10 9 3 SHEAR DIR 35 68 77 124 130 112 136 156 128 103 109 146 191 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 150 151 151 149 148 145 141 138 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 64 57 58 57 56 60 60 61 60 61 61 58 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 2 850 MB VORT -78 -73 -50 -34 -22 26 40 66 74 111 112 112 97 LAND (KM) 958 979 1001 1049 1096 1181 1296 1379 1447 1546 1701 1777 1808 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.2 115.6 116.0 116.4 117.4 119.2 120.4 121.3 122.7 124.9 126.0 126.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 23. 22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 3.28 Prob of RI= 14.3% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)