* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 60 60 62 61 57 55 52 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 60 60 62 61 57 55 52 47 43 39 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 7 3 4 12 32 34 40 41 44 41 42 SHEAR DIR 103 91 115 73 331 281 271 273 277 271 249 238 227 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.3 26.3 25.6 25.6 22.1 15.2 14.8 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 141 146 122 115 115 92 74 73 78 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -54.1 -54.4 -55.6 -54.1 -52.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 14 12 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 32 29 29 28 29 41 39 38 39 51 55 54 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 9 -2 0 15 36 52 850 MB VORT -76 -95 -104 -106 -91 -39 -34 -8 -6 -14 58 112 125 LAND (KM) 706 636 576 559 559 513 470 485 539 509 267 569 1055 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.6 33.5 34.5 35.5 37.5 39.3 40.3 40.8 42.2 44.9 47.0 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 70.0 70.1 69.9 69.7 67.9 64.8 61.5 58.4 54.9 50.8 45.3 38.6 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 15 26 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -35 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. -11. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.04 Prob of RI= 12.3% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)