* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 44 48 53 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 44 48 53 56 59 61 SHEAR (KTS) 17 20 16 15 16 12 14 9 8 8 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 183 205 204 199 207 231 217 264 229 281 266 292 202 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 139 141 141 146 148 149 151 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 500-300 MB RH 40 39 41 38 39 43 41 45 45 44 45 43 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 2 1 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 15 11 10 8 9 1 -1 -1 0 -1 -29 -47 -40 LAND (KM) 1339 1370 1408 1445 1487 1520 1560 1488 1336 1206 1173 1033 855 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.2 19.4 20.4 21.2 22.2 23.4 24.1 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.3 48.3 49.5 51.3 53.3 54.9 55.8 57.9 60.8 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 34 35 33 34 37 37 41 52 49 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 607 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 3.66 Prob of RI= 7.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)