* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 53 54 54 53 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 53 54 54 53 52 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 4 6 7 5 10 14 18 19 21 10 13 SHEAR DIR 32 16 26 85 106 85 99 116 105 102 115 144 139 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 152 152 151 147 146 144 140 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 58 58 58 57 56 60 58 64 60 69 68 66 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 6 6 -1 0 0 1 850 MB VORT -75 -53 -44 -32 -15 26 42 62 74 103 123 121 112 LAND (KM) 1007 1042 1077 1150 1222 1335 1436 1550 1686 1761 1779 1853 1944 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.1 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.8 116.1 116.6 117.1 118.4 120.0 121.8 123.5 124.7 125.6 126.9 128.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 497 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 18. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 3.87 Prob of RI= 25.1% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)