* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 52 54 55 54 54 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 52 54 55 54 54 53 51 49 46 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 3 6 5 18 26 33 43 45 46 54 52 SHEAR DIR 80 94 91 3 344 283 293 279 278 254 246 234 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.4 26.9 26.4 24.6 19.0 14.4 15.2 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 137 145 148 128 123 107 81 73 74 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -55.0 -55.1 -53.8 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 12 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 31 29 29 28 32 46 37 40 47 51 54 59 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 2 -6 22 47 27 850 MB VORT -83 -99 -89 -89 -52 -21 -13 -4 3 28 94 118 109 LAND (KM) 643 594 563 596 615 582 569 575 580 391 431 875 1426 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.1 37.7 38.8 40.1 41.2 43.2 46.2 51.3 57.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.1 70.0 69.4 68.7 66.0 62.8 59.7 56.6 52.5 47.5 41.5 34.7 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 10 22 31 31 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 507 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. -6. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 82.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 3.63 Prob of RI= 7.3% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)