* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 32 38 42 48 53 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 32 38 42 48 53 59 60 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 13 14 9 4 7 5 8 3 6 5 10 SHEAR DIR 197 207 203 200 216 157 208 127 215 225 233 229 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 145 145 145 149 151 152 149 148 149 152 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 500-300 MB RH 42 42 41 41 42 44 45 45 41 40 37 42 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 7 2 2 2 0 4 1 1 1 2 4 2 850 MB VORT 16 10 -5 -8 -16 -24 -23 -28 -19 -21 -42 -30 -34 LAND (KM) 1203 1231 1265 1270 1279 1290 1295 1205 1150 1025 953 820 622 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.5 22.8 23.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 45.9 46.4 46.8 47.4 47.9 49.4 51.3 53.0 54.6 56.2 57.9 60.2 62.9 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 37 41 45 56 67 82 63 52 31 37 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 721 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 19. 25. 29. 34. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 23. 28. 34. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 3.73 Prob of RI= 8.5% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)