* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 47 44 41 38 36 36 37 40 43 46 47 V (KT) LAND 55 50 47 44 41 38 36 36 37 40 43 46 47 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 6 7 11 14 14 10 11 6 4 4 9 SHEAR DIR 269 292 273 234 224 218 207 196 205 221 216 132 142 SST (C) 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 107 110 112 114 116 119 119 118 119 120 123 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 32 29 28 23 22 19 21 23 25 28 25 26 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 3 3 1 1 850 MB VORT 59 47 39 48 57 35 40 27 34 39 39 40 44 LAND (KM) 1730 1806 1882 1967 2052 2233 2086 1910 1747 1596 1489 1352 1192 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.6 15.2 14.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.7 130.4 131.2 132.0 133.7 135.2 137.0 138.7 140.3 141.5 143.0 144.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 748 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -20. -17. -15. -12. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. -18. -15. -12. -9. -8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 24.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.75 Scaled RI index= 2.42 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)