* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GREG 08/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 48 50 51 51 52 53 52 50 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 48 50 51 51 52 53 52 50 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 11 12 8 11 15 14 16 13 14 11 17 SHEAR DIR 51 78 104 116 114 95 110 116 120 118 146 151 149 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 151 149 146 144 142 142 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 56 55 50 52 52 56 58 62 65 68 66 59 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 4 1 2 0 3 -1 0 850 MB VORT -67 -60 -50 -34 -6 4 27 54 85 110 127 129 125 LAND (KM) 1041 1084 1127 1184 1243 1368 1470 1546 1624 1706 1794 1881 1947 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.2 116.6 117.2 117.8 119.2 120.7 122.0 123.1 124.3 125.6 126.9 128.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 548 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GREG 8/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.03 Scaled RI index= 3.20 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)