* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 53 54 55 53 52 52 50 48 44 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 53 54 55 53 52 52 50 48 44 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 6 7 10 21 31 41 40 48 45 50 44 SHEAR DIR 106 102 348 342 289 280 280 279 277 255 241 226 223 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.6 27.6 26.7 25.6 21.2 14.8 15.3 14.2 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 137 143 151 137 126 115 88 73 74 73 72 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 -55.6 -54.7 -52.9 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 8 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 30 30 27 31 39 43 41 44 53 55 63 52 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 7 10 22 29 29 -25 850 MB VORT -86 -92 -68 -50 -24 -6 13 -7 3 40 84 115 162 LAND (KM) 586 589 609 641 590 586 584 575 467 326 699 1152 1453 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.1 37.0 38.3 39.4 40.7 42.5 45.4 49.5 52.6 54.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 69.7 69.2 68.2 67.2 64.3 61.1 57.7 54.0 49.3 43.5 37.9 32.3 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 22 30 17 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 492 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 22. 26. 29. 29. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 3.67 Prob of RI= 7.8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)