* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 40 45 50 55 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 40 45 50 55 60 60 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 15 14 9 7 7 7 9 7 8 8 9 SHEAR DIR 203 193 201 227 242 208 265 213 274 262 313 289 319 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 145 148 149 151 149 148 148 149 154 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 40 41 43 44 44 47 49 44 46 48 50 47 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 6 2 4 2 1 2 1 2 2 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 10 0 -4 -7 -12 -18 -19 -17 -15 -28 -36 -38 -68 LAND (KM) 1163 1171 1184 1207 1233 1280 1278 1244 1174 1047 939 866 864 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.6 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.3 22.0 23.3 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.1 47.6 48.3 48.9 50.2 51.5 53.1 54.7 56.2 57.6 59.3 61.4 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 41 44 52 67 68 75 51 42 39 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 30. 35. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 3.83 Prob of RI= 9.7% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)